Between Sep-2022 and Sept-2024, the Nifty50 delivered four straight half-years of strong returns: 1.5%, 11.6%, 12.0% and 13.5%. Many investors quietly rebased their expectations, treating double-digit gains every six months as the norm (and their right!) rather than the exception.
But the next four half-years told a different story: -9.7%, 4.4%, -10.2% and 1.3%. The Nifty50 has moved from 25,810 to 22,620 in those two years.
This is not a market behaving badly. It is a market doing what it usually does: reverting to its long-term average after an extended run above it. You may not like it or want to believe it. But it is what is true.
And those who have had short investment horizons and little patience feel the pain most, because they were anchored to the good phase. Their expectations were the problem, not the markets, which are just mean-reverting.