Sounds like a title of some Technical Analysis writeup? I don’t blame you. 🙂 But rest assured it is not. Infact, this will be an entertaining post for you if you are interested in giving some thought to PE-Based investing. In previous post, I did a detailed analysis of the PE Ratio of Nifty 50 in last 16+ years.
It does throw up some interesting insights. But what catches the eye is that there are levels, which the Nifty generally fails to breach on lower and upper sides.
There is no doubt that by investing (more) in markets trading at low PE multiples, chances of earning higher future returns increase. Similarly by investing in markets trading at higher PEs, chances of lower future returns increase. It is very simple.
But to say that one can time the market on basis of just Index PE will be an over-simplification.
As we saw in previous post, the mere fact that expected average returns are high does not mean that the returns you (in particular) get, will be guaranteedon lines of the high averages. It does not work like that.
If you are unable to understand this point, I recommend reading the post – especially the example of average depth of river part.
Now I did the following analysis in 2012too. There were clear indicators then, that broader indices had a dislike for staying above or below certain PE multiples. Not much has changed in last 4 years.
Without getting into the statistical accuracy of numbers, the analysis shows that these PE multiples are PE12 and PE24.
Have a look at graph below:
The blue line is actual Nifty level.
The red line is hypothetical Nifty level at PE24 at that time.
The green line is hypothetical Nifty level at PE12 at that time.
Clearly, Nifty seems to have trouble staying above PE24 (considered highly overvalued) and below PE12 (considered highly undervalued).
Whenever it reaches either of these two levels, it seems to bounce off in opposite direction!
Though the chart might look like a screen-grab from a trader’s terminal, it’s a clear display of how fundamental this concept is. 🙂
Buy low (PE). Sell high (PE).
If you think it’s timing, then you are right.
If you think it cannot be done, then you can try this instead:
Buy low (PE). Avoid buying high (PE).
More manageable. Right?
Now ofcourse you can say that I should have used PE25 or PE11 to make it more accurate. But the idea here is not to be as accurate as possible. Rather, the idea is to become cautious when markets start moving in irrational territories. Index PE depends a lot on what are the index constituents and other factors.
So broadly speaking and ofcourse basing my conclusions on past data, PE12 seems like a clear signal that investors are unreasonably pessimistic and at PE24, over optimistic. Both are unsustainable and hence, indicate near term reversion towards mean. Though nobody can guarantee that markets will behave on similar lines in future, chances of that happening are pretty high.
Those who think that, ‘this time its different’ – have not had much success when it comes to investing. 🙂
My analysis and conviction is based on the fundamental assumption that India is a growing economy (atleast for next decade and a half). And I believe that markets are highly undervalued around PE12 and highly overvalued as they approach PE24.
But ofcourse, you may choose to differ on this and invest accordingly.
So instead of getting into this debate, lets come back to the title of the post – Is it safe to say that index bounces off PE levels of 12 and 24?
It seems to be true. But note that markets don’t stay at such low/high levels for very long time.
So inspite of being sure to invest when PE12 is crossed on the downside, you might find yourself lacking enough firepower (cash) to take advantage of the situation.
Have a look at times the index has spent at various PE levels:
Now lets aggregate these PE bands into smaller groups:
Just 1% of the time – market has stayed below PE12. Can you catch it?
Chances are high that market will catch you unaware. And believe me, market is capable of doing that beautifully. 🙂
So what should one do?
Its simple, you cannot wait for markets to fall to PE12. But you can become (more) interested at it crosses PE15 on the downside. That is more manageable. By ‘becoming interested’, I mean that you should have a thought process like this:
“Market just came down to PE15. It looks attractive. But what if it falls lower? Do I have the money to buy more if it goes down to PE12-13? I guess I should be alert and start preparing myself.”
You might ask that why am I telling you all this when PE is neither near 12 nor 24 (Currently 19)? It is because you won’t listen to me when markets are booming (PE24) or when everybody else around you is selling and running away from markets (PE12). 🙂
So keep this in mind.
Hi Dev Ashish
I’m Karan Batra from charteredclub.com and firmly endorse your views about Indian Stocks being overpriced and a correction which is now due.
It was only my based on my trading history that I came to the conclusion that Nifty is overpriced. But, after reading more than 20 articles on your website in the past few days – I would like to say that you have given a logical reasoning why markets seem to be overpriced and a correction is long due.
Thanks for your guidance.
Keep up the good work
We are close to PE of 24 currently. But sentiments are bullish this time around.What is your say?
We are definitely overvalued as far as historical trends are concerned. But then, there are no guarantees in markets. It may or may not correct from current levels.
definitely time to stay in cash to some portion – I am about 20% in cash
Yes. The markets do seem to be high valuation wise.
would it be possible to have an overlay of yield for 10 year Government Paper in the same graph and analyze the impact of changes in yield on PE values and sustainability of the same.
Very good article. Just a thought since you have all the data if we can find out some correlation with Nifty Index PE and Gold Returns.
I did some analysis for the Period Jan 2015 to July 2017 and got the follwing results.. If someone would have waited for PE to go below 23, he would have missed the bull run.
Period 2015-17 Comments
23 44% Half of 2015 & 2016, Most of 2017
25 3% All in 2017
ANother analysis for 2017. PE has been above 23 85% of the time. Time to invst only in debt
Period Jan 2017-Aug 2017
PE Above % time
Would be interesting to do same analysis for P/B
I read this article in 2016 and revisiting in Oct ending 2017. The current P/E of Nifty is 26.11. I like your reasoning of why an index P/E at certain level is expensive for a developing economy unlike most who do not attribute any reasons why expensive or why cheap! It doesn’t matter whether you get right or wrong but it does matter having a conscious thought process in investing. I’ve been thinking looking at most mid/small caps for last 2-3 months and they have run up almost double whatever stocks I want to consider. I’m not convinced with retail mutual fund flows like never before (thanks for financial advisors, print media who always advise to buy but never to sell irrespective of valuations) while the FII are net sellers. My thoughts are not about FII being net sellers but the way retailers are investing appears to be a sign of danger. Retailers always enter at the last stage of market rise. I again remind myself that it’s just my confirmation bias. I’ve been considering to stop my equity investments (I may be suffering from confirmation bias too) and follow a strict wait and watch approach until a good stocks comes down to an attractive level. I may lose out and I will get to know it only in future. Hopefully I’ll write here again the results.
Well thought out and researched article. We are into July 2018 and the Nifty PE has been above 24 for the last 14 straight months, the longest time since 1999. But on the other hand P/BV is nowhere near the highs of 2007. So would making a decision on buying/selling taking both PE and P/BV into consideration be more informative?
Hi Ashish, it would be be good to get an update on this article to see if there is any revision required to the Pe bands based on the changes in Nifty constituents. It appears that the Nifty is consistently above PE 24 for the last 24 months and hasn’t gone below 20 in the last 60 months. is this change in average PE values based on more financials coming into the Nifty or some other factor