New Banking Licenses in India – The Winners

If everything goes according to RBI’s plan, then very soon we would have the names of new banks to bank with. Only hindrance to announcement of winners’ names could be Election Commission’s Model Code of Conduct for political parties. This code restricts existing government from making any announcements that can influence voters in coming elections, scheduled to take place between 7th April 2014 and 12th May 2014.

The committee under former RBI governor Bimal Jalan has already submitted its final recommendations and by now, (and most probably) RBI Governor would have clear knowledge about who is getting the banking license. But before public declaration of results, RBI is expected to take approvals from Election Commission to stay within the legal boundations of Model Code of Conduct.

So before RBI announces it, I am trying to make an educated guess about who all are going to get the banking licenses.

And my guesses are:

L&T Financial Holdings

Aditya Birla Nuvo

Muthoot Finance

Indian Post

I am not very sure about Indian Post getting the license. And that is even though I want it to get it. Reason for the same is that though everyone in this under-banked country is focusing on 150,000+ post offices which Indian Post has, the fact remains that most of these customer touch points are not in very usable condition. Another factor which might play against Indian Post is that this time, licenses were supposed to be granted to private players. And Indian Post is hardly private. 🙂

And if you do believe in concept of insider information then just have look at below graph. It shows share price movement of few of the above mentioned names in last one month. Do you feel that somebody, somewhere knows something? 🙂 🙂

New Banking License India Share Price
Banking Hopefuls : Share Price Movement in last One Month

So what do you think? Who will get the license this time?