One of the Biggest Reasons You should be Investing. Even if you can’t beat the Markets.

Surprised?

I am asking you to invest, knowing very well that most of you may not be capable of beating the markets regularly.

Let’s be honest here. Most investors haven’t been able to beat markets consistently over long periods. I am not talking about greats like Buffett. I am talking about common people like You and me. People who have an intention of making a killing in markets, but somehow or the other, end being killed by the markets.

But if you know that you cannot beat the market, then does it make any sense to be in market?

Yes it does.

But first and foremost, please understand that accepting and embracing the fact that you are incapable of beating markets is an achievement in itself. 95 out 100 people in markets do not know this or don’t want to accept this. But it is the hard truth and tough to swallow.

But…if you are ready to accept this uncomfortable truth, then it can be one of your biggest strengths in stock markets. 

Market has an unbelievable potential of creating wealth. On an average, markets deliver annual returns of 12% to 15% over long term.

For someone who is capable of beating these numbers, returns would be in excess of 15%. But for those who are not in markets, all they can possibly earn is 7% to 9% depending on taxes applicable on the chosen asset class like banks deposits, etc. By not investing in markets, these people are missing out on extra 3% to 5% which can be earned by staying in markets.

Now these might look like small single-digit numbers. But you will be shocked to see the effect these numbers have on your wealth over a period of 10-20 years.

And the graph below clearly shows this. It’s a very simple depiction of what happens when an annual investment of Rs 60,000 (5K Per month) grows at 12%-15% (Equities); and what happens when the same money is parked in safer options at 7%-9% (FDs, PFs, etc).
Monthly Investment 20 Years
Returns on Rs 5000 per month investment in 20 years (At 7%, 9%, 12% and 15%)
Over a period of 20 years, you would have put in Rs 12 Lacs, i.e. Rs 5000 every month. Now this can either grow into Rs 26 to 34 Lacs if invested at 7% to 9% class of assets. Or into a much bigger amount of Rs 48 to 71 Lacs if invested at 12%-15% in stock markets.

Now wait…if you think that markets guarantee 12%-15% every year, then that is not the case. Returns in market are volatile. It can be 50% in one year and (-)30% in another. But over long periods spanning decades, the average returns are in line with these numbers.

And this clearly means one thing…

Even if you cannot beat the market, you should still not avoid investing in it.

Avoiding markets would prevent you from achieving higher long-term returns when compared with other options like bank deposits, PF, etc.

So is there a way to invest in markets, which is…

1) Simple
2) Sensible
3) In line with the thought that it is not easy to beat markets?

The answer is yes.

And the way to do it is Index Funds.

What is an Index Fund?

According to Investopedia, Index Fund is a type of mutual fund with a portfolio constructed to match or track the components of a market index (such as Sensex or Nifty 50). An index fund is said to provide broad market exposure, low operating expenses and low portfolio turnover.

You might not know which individual stock or sector will outperform. But on an average, a carefully selected group of companies across sectors can do a decent job of maximizing diversification and minimizing exposure to few individual companies or sectors.

I am not saying that you should invest all your money in index funds. But if you think you want to save (invest) for long term, then atleast a part of your money should be parked in instruments linked to stock markets. And your safest bet can be Index funds. You can also choose well diversified large-cap or multi-cap funds which have proven track records. But that would mean that returns achieved by such funds would depend on fund manager’s ability to pick stocks. On the other hand, there is no active selection of stocks in index funds. Such funds simply replicate the composition of an index.

So if you feel that you have a knack of picking stocks which give market beating returns, then there is nothing like it and you should surely invest in stock markets directly.

But if not, then may be its time to think a little more seriously about Index Funds. And that is because if you are not in markets, then over long periods, you are missing out on some seriously big wealth creation opportunity.

Interesting Story:

When Google was about to launch it IPO in 2004, the company realized that this would create quite a few millionaires among its employees. The company therefore brought in a series of financial experts to teach them to make smart investment choices. A 1990 Economics Nobel Prize winner was also brought in. Even he advised Google employees “[not to] try to beat the markets” and to park their money in index funds.

Seems like Someone has rightly said – If you can’t beat them, join them. 🙂

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Best Nifty Stocks and 3 questions that let us shortlist them

Taking cues from Morgan Stanley’s ‘Connecting the Dots’ (June 2012), we decided to shortlist our own set of dependable stocks. For this we used following filters –


Filter 1: Is the Sales growth faster than nominal GDP growth?
This can be achieved by either being a part of a fast growing industry and/or gaining market share within the industry.

Filter 2: Is Profit growth faster than Sales growth?
This signifies a combination of several dimensions like market dominance, pricing power, better cost management, judicious investments and right mix of debt and equity.

Filter 3: Is Earnings per Share (EPS) growth broadly in line with Profit growth?
This signifies that growth and capital efficiency are linked. This also indicates whether an individual shareholder participates proportionately in company’s growth or not.

After shortlisting stocks by using the 3 filters, we added information about Return on Equity (RoE), Debt/Equity (D/E) & Dividend Yield (DY) as these are information which should be looked into before taking a final call to buy any stock.

We started with a universe of 50 safe large cap stocks which form the Nifty50. After putting Filter 1, we were left with 35 stocks. On putting Filter 2, we were left with 19 stocks. Final filter resulted in shortlisting of 13 stocks, which met all three criterias.

During last 3 years, average sales growth of these 13 stocks was 22.10%, which was much above the nominal GDP growth rate of 13 percent. Average Profit growth for these stocks was 31.40% & EPS grew at an astounding CAGR of 33.40%.

So, without much delay, we present the 13 rock solid and dependable stocks of Indian markets…
  • TCS
  • ITC
  • HDFC Bank
  • Wipro
  • BHEL
  • Power Grid
  • Bajaj Auto
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank
  • Axis Bank
  • Hero Motocorp
  • Asian Paints
  • Bank of Baroda
  • IDFC

How these 13 stocks fared on 3 criterias is detailed in table below –

During the last 3 years, an investment made in portfolio of these 13 stocks would have given a market beating return of 17.90% (CAGR)

Only one stock, BHEL, gave negative returns (-17.34%) in this period. Overall market returned a meager 3.73%. This portfolio outperformed the market by 14% + (!!).


A snapshot & analysis of all 50 stocks can be found below. Please click the image to enlarge.

Click to enlarge
Caution – This is not a recommendationto BUY any of these stocks. We have not considered valuations of these stocks in the post. So do your due diligence before buying any of these stocks. Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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