A few days ago, I did a post on How You Could Create a Corpus of Rs 8.4 Crores Starting with Just Rs 10,000 every month. In the post, I analyzed following 3 scenarios over a period of 30 years (with approximate results):
- A Fixed SIP of Rs 10,000 every month (= Rs 3.24 Crores)
- An Increasing SIP, Starting with Rs 10,000 every month & 10% Annual Increase (= Rs 8.40 Crores)
- A Fixed SIP of Rs 26,000 every month (= Rs 8.40 Crores)
In all the above scenarios, the assumption for annual returns was 12%. Now this number, according to me is quite conservative because of the following points:
- In last (almost) 2 decades, Indian markets have given higher returns (in excess of 15%).
- Well diversified, actively managed mutual funds have delivered returns of more than 18% for almost a decade.
- If risk-free instruments like NSC, PPF give close to 9% return, then there is no point going for equities as an investment class if expectations are less than 10%
- Indian Growth Story is still intact. And till the time India becomes a developed economy, it will continue to grow at a reasonable pace. My guess is that India is still 25-30 years away from becoming a mature and (real) developed economy – in terms of quality of life, industrial might and similar things.
The last point is my personal assumption (speculation). And there were few readers who had the view that 12% average returns in not sustainable for next 30 years. Some of the views were that as the economy grows and matures, inflation would stabilize and reach levels close to 2-3% as in the case of US and other developed economies…so figuring in dividend yield and the equity return risk premium, Indian markets might give 9% to 10% return 30 years down the line… AND….Premium above inflation is bound to reduce as inflation decreases as the economy matures.
Now I am not saying that my assumption of 12% is hundred percent correct. What I am saying is that I am slightly more optimistic about India in next 30 years. I know I will not get 20% returns from market. But I ‘think’ I will be able to make more than 9% average returns over the next 30 years. Because if I am not able to manage that, then I will rather buy risk-free options like PPF, NSC, etc.
But more importantly, what I think a lot of people are missing in last post is the fact, that the 3 scenarios discussed show the real power of long term, sensible investing.
Ask anyone who is close to his/her retirement and chances are that they may not have crores in their retirement funds. I have people asking me questions like ‘What should I do if I have Rs 10,000 every month to invest?’
The previous post is an answer to that. No matter where you are and what your current financial state…you can start now!
Believe me… Equities have the ability to make you rich. Really rich… All you need to do is to be disciplined and stick to simple investment ideas.
Note that in all the scenarios, we are assuming a 30 year tenure and equity return of 12%. These numbers can change depending on change in tenure and equity return…you can either keep an assumption of 10% for next 30 years OR 12% for first 20 years and 9% for remaining 10 years. But the overall conclusion remains same – Do your SIP diligently, however small it may be. And whether or not, you are able to increase it every year. You will be positively surprised at the money you have accumulated at the end of all those years.